BB-Stops A profitable trade depends on when the trade is closed. The primary components of the service are daily lists of stocks that meet the criteria for four different trading methods METHODS developed created by John Bollinger which are calculated and updated nightly. Notice that the stock did not close above the upper band once during this period. Financial traders employ these charts as a methodical tool to inform trading decisions, control automated trading systems , or as a component of technical analysis. The problem with this approach is after you change the length to
Also, notice that MACD formed a bearish divergence and moved below its signal line for confirmation. Price exceeded the upper band in early September to affirm the uptrend. After a pullback below the day SMA middle Bollinger Band , the stock moved to a higher high above Despite this new high for the move, price did not exceed the upper band. This flashed a warning sign. The stock broke support a week later and MACD moved below its signal line. Notice that this M-top is more complex because there are lower reaction highs on either side of the peak blue arrow.
This evolving top formed a small head-and-shoulders pattern. Moves above or below the bands are not signals per se. On the face of it, a move to the upper band shows strength, while a sharp move to the lower band shows weakness. Momentum oscillators work much the same way. Overbought is not necessarily bullish. It takes strength to reach overbought levels and overbought conditions can extend in a strong uptrend.
Think about it for a moment. The upper band is 2 standard deviations above the period simple moving average. It takes a pretty strong price move to exceed this upper band. An upper band touch that occurs after a Bollinger Band confirmed W-Bottom would signal the start of an uptrend. Just as a strong uptrend produces numerous upper band tags, it is also common for prices to never reach the lower band during an uptrend.
The day SMA sometimes acts as support. In fact, dips below the day SMA sometimes provide buying opportunities before the next tag of the upper band. First, notice that this is a strong surge that broke above two resistance levels.
A strong upward thrust is a sign of strength, not weakness. Trading turned flat in August and the day SMA moved sideways. Prices and the day SMA turned up in September. Overall, APD closed above the upper band at least five times over a four month period. Dips below are deemed oversold and moves back above signal the start of an oversold bounce green dotted line.
The upper band tag and breakout started the uptrend. CCI then identified tradable pullbacks with dips below This is an example of combining Bollinger Bands with a momentum oscillator for trading signals.
Chart 7 shows Monsanto MON with a walk down the lower band. The stock broke down in January with a support break and closed below the lower band. From mid-January until early May, Monsanto closed below the lower band at least five times. Notice that the stock did not close above the upper band once during this period. The support break and initial close below the lower band signaled a downtrend.
This system triggered two good signals in early Bollinger himself stated a touch of the upper band or lower band does not constitute a buy or sell signal. Notice how the volume exploded on the breakout and the price began to trend outside of the bands; these can be hugely profitable setups if you give them room to fly. I want to touch on the middle band again. Just as a reminder, the middle band is set as a period simple moving average in many charting applications. The middle line can represent areas of support on pullbacks when the stock is riding the bands.
You could even increase your position in the stock when the price pulls back to the middle line. Regarding identifying when the trend is losing steam, failure of the stock to continue to accelerate outside of the bands indicates a weakening in the strength of the stock. This would be a good time to think about scaling out of a position or getting out entirely.
Another trading strategy is to gauge the initiation of an upcoming squeeze. John created an indicator known as the band width. The idea, using daily charts, is that when the indicator reaches its lowest level in 6 months, you can expect the volatility to increase. This goes back to the tightening of the bands that I mentioned above. This squeezing action of the bollinger band indicator foreshadows a big move.
You can use additional signs such as volume expanding, or the accumulation distribution indicator turning up. We need to have an edge when trading a bollinger band squeeze because these setups can head-fake the best of us. It immediately reversed, and all the breakout traders were head faked. You don't have to squeeze every penny out of a trade.
Wait for some confirmation of the breakout and then go with it. If you are right, it will go much further in your direction. Notice how the price and volume broke when approaching the head fake highs yellow line. To the point of waiting for confirmation, let's look at how to use the power of a Bollinger Band squeeze to our advantage. Notice how leading up to the morning gap the bands were extremely tight. Now some traders can take the elementary trading approach of shorting the stock on the open with the assumption that the amount of energy developed during the tightness of the bands will carry the stock much lower.
Another approach is to wait for confirmation of this belief. So, the way to handle this sort of setup is to 1 wait for the candlestick to come back inside of the bands and 2 make sure there are a few inside bars that do not break the low of the first bar and 3 short on the break of the low of the first candlestick.
Based on reading these three requirements you can imagine this does not happen very often in the market, but when it does, it's something else. The below chart depicts this approach. Now let's look at the same sort of setup but on the long side. Below is a snapshot of Google from April 26, Notice how GOOG gapped up over the upper band on the open, had a small retracement back inside of the bands, then later exceeded the high of the first candlestick.
These sorts of setups can prove powerful if they end up riding the bands. This strategy is for those of us that like to ask for very little from the markets. Essentially you are waiting for the market to bounce off the bands back to the middle line. You are not obsessed with getting in a position and it wildly swinging in your favor.
Nor are you looking to be a prophet of sorts and try to predict how far a stock should or should not run. By not asking for much, you will be able to safely pull money out of the market on a consistent basis and ultimately reduce the wild fluctuations of your account balance, which is common for traders that take big risks. The key to this strategy is waiting on a test of the mid-line before entering the position.
You can increase your likelihood of placing a winning trade if you go in the direction of the primary trend and there is a sizable amount of volatility. As you can see in the above example, notice how the stock had a sharp run-up, only to pull back to the mid-line. You would want to enter the position after the failed attempt to break to the downside.
You can then sell the position on a test of the upper band. If you have an appetite for risk, you can ride the bands to determine where to exit the position. This is honestly my favorite of the strategies. If I gave you any other indication that I preferred one of the other signals, forget whatever I said earlier.
First, you need to find a stock that is stuck in a trading range. The greater the range, the better. Now, looking at this chart, I feel a sense of boredom coming over me. However, from my experience, the guys that take money out of the market when it presents itself, are the ones sitting with a big pile of cash at the end of the day. In the above example, you just buy when a stock tests the low end of its range and the lower band. Conversely, you sell when the stock tests the high of the range and the upper band.
The key to this strategy is a stock having a clearly defined trading range. This way you are not trading the bands blindly but are using the bands to gauge when a stock has gone too far. You could argue that you don't need the bands to execute this strategy. However, by having the bands, you can validate that a security is in a flat or low volatility phase, by reviewing the look and feel of the bands. So, instead of trying to win big, you just play the range and collect all your pennies on each price swing of the stock.
Like anything else in the market, there are no guarantees. Bollinger Bands can be a great tool for identifying volatility in a security, but it can also prove to be a nightmare when it comes to newbie traders.
Don't skip ahead, but I will touch on this from my personal experience a little later in this article. Not exiting your trade can almost prove disastrous as three of the aforementioned strategies are trying to capture the benefits of a volatility spike. For example, imagine you are short a stock that reverses back to the highs and begins riding the bands. What would you do? While bands do a great job of encapsulating price movement, it only takes one extremely volatile stock to show you the bands are nothing more than man's failed attempt to control the uncontrollable.
While there is still more content for you to consume, please remember one thing - you must have stopped in place! Let me help you out if you are confused - kill the trade! While bandsdo a great job of encapsulating price movement, it only takes one extremely volatile stock to show you the bands are nothing more than man's failed attempt to control the uncontrollable.
Strategy 5 - Snap back to mthe iddle band, will work in very strong markets. I have been a breakout trader for years and let me tell you that most breakouts fail. Not to say pullbacks are without their own issues, but you at least minimize your risk by not buying at the top.
Shifting gears to strategy 6 - Trade Inside the Bands, this approach will work well in sideways markets. Because you are not asking much from the market in terms of price movement. From my personal experience of placing thousands of trades, the more profit you search for in the market, the less likely you will be right.
Don't worry, I'm not about to go on a history lesson on cryptocurrencies with details of where David Chaum went to college. I was reading an article on Forbes, and it highlighted 6 volatile swings of bitcoin starting from November through March So, I wanted to do my own research and I looked at the most recent price swings of Bitcoin in the Tradingsim platform. Let's look at the period of December 22, ,to December 27, During this period, Bitcoin ran from a low of 12, to a high of 16, Let's unpack this a little further.
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